Victorian Climate Change Green Paper
Part 2 - The challenge of our generation
Green Paper part 2 - The challenge of our generation (Printable version, PDF - 1.1 MB)
2.1 Our changing climate
2.2 Our current emissions
Australia’s climate is changing as a result of global warming
In the decades ahead, further changes are inevitable, with consequences that are likely to include increases in temperature, rises in ocean levels, more severe storms and droughts, and the loss of plant and animal species.
These consequences pose a real and serious threat to Victoria’s future - unless global action is taken, climate change will have a significant detrimental impact on our cities, towns and communities, our economy and our industries, and our natural environment.
2.1 Our changing climate
The Victorian Government accepts the consensus of the Australian and international scientific communities that human activities have resulted in substantial global warming over the last 60 years and that the continued growth in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by these activities is generating a high risk of dangerous climate change.
Since 1950, the annual average temperature in Victoria has increased. Between 1950 and 2007, daily maximum temperatures increased by about 0.8°C, while daily minimum temperatures rose by only half as much. Australia experienced an exceptionally hot and dry decade from 1998 to 2008. In Victoria, 2007 was the warmest year on record, with the mean annual temperature around 1.2°C above the long-term average. The average daily maximum temperature over the decade for Victoria was also 0.6°C warmer than the 30 year average (1961 to 1990), while the average daily minimum temperature was 0.2°C warmer (Figure 1).
Victoria is expected to warm at a slightly faster rate than the global average, especially in the north and east of the state. By 2030, annual average temperatures in Victoria are expected to increase by around a further 0.8°C on 1990 levels (although the results of climate change modelling suggest a range of 0.6°C to 1.2°C). By 2070, the average annual temperature could increase by 1.4°C under a low emissions scenario or by more than 3°C under a high emissions scenario.
Figure 1: Victorian annual average temperatures since 1910 (variations are from the 1961 to 1990 mean). Source: Climate Change in Victoria: 2008 Summary (Victorian Government, June 2008)
What is climate change?
Over the last 200 years, human activities have increased the amount of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases occur naturally and are vital for sustaining life on earth. However, the rate of growth in these gases - and their accumulated quantities - is increasing the earth’s surface temperature to artificially high levels and changing the climate.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections indicate that by 2100, the earth will have warmed by between 1.1°C and 6.4°C. The actual warming we will experience will depend on the net greenhouse gas emissions produced in the next couple of decades and beyond. Because of the inertia in the climate
system it is projected that the globe is committed to at least a further 0.6°C of warming by 2030.
However, there is broad agreement within the scientifi c community that these projected temperature increases may be conservative. There is evidence to suggest that global emissions have grown much more rapidly than estimated, that a number of climate change processes may have a greater influence on temperature increases than is presently understood and that the world may be in danger of crossing climate ‘tipping points’ in a number of areas, where the damage caused by climate change may be impossible to reverse.
The climate averages themselves do not show the full extent of change. Regional variations will be significant, and in many instances the climate will become more variable, with more significant extremes.
Already, significant climate change impacts have been observed, including:
- Rapid reduction in Arctic sea ice, thinning and loss of ice shelves around the Greenland ice sheet and ice thinning around the Antarctic Peninsula
- Decreased snow cover in the northern hemisphere for every month except November and December
- Increased permafrost warming in the Arctic and on the Tibetan plateau
- Changes in sea surface temperatures and ocean current strengths, and acidification of oceans
- Rapid reduction of tropical glaciers, such as on Mt Kilimanjaro and in Bolivia
- Drying of the climate in southern Asia
- Increase in the number and proportion of tropical cyclones reaching 4 and 5 intensity levels since 1970
- Changes in seasonal activities of animals and plants, such as earlier flowering times
- Substantial decline in rainfall in southern Australia.
More severe weather events, such as floods, cyclones and droughts, are likely to occur more frequently. Sea levels are expected to rise by between 18 cm to 59 cm by 2100, with a possible additional contribution from ice sheet melts of 10 cm to 20cm. This would lead to the inundation of coastal areas in a number of countries, causing the disappearance of some nations altogether, contaminating freshwater supplies in many regions and displacing millions of people.
Agricultural yields are expected to decline in many regions (although they may increase in some areas). As some places become hotter and drier, and more extreme weather events take place, disruptions are likely to occur in food supplies.
Climate change will increase the frequency and impact of fi re related events. It will also increase the distribution of vector and water-borne infectious diseases and the number of people dying or suffering from disease and injury due to heatwaves and severe weather events such as floods, bushfi res, storms and cyclones.
How is climate change likely to affect Victoria?
| Our climate in 2030 | Our climate in 2070 |
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What would an increase of 2°C actually mean for Victoria?
Since 1950, Victoria has become warmer and drier, and this trend is likely to continue due to projected increases in greenhouse gases. Although the projections have a wide range of uncertainty, carbon dioxide emissions have been tracking the upper limit of IPCC projections since 1990. If we continue to follow a high emissions path, Victoria is likely to experience a warming of 1.8°C to 3.8°C by 2070, with a rainfall change of -25% to +3%. The warming is likely to be greater in northern regions and the drying is likely to be greater in southern regions. This means that the impacts of climate change will vary across the state.
Different regions also comprise a unique combination of sectors. For example, the minerals and resources sector is less exposed to direct changes in climate, although exposure to fire, floods, off-shore storms and potential reduced access to water are likely to have a negative impact. In contrast, the natural resources and biodiversity sector - often noted as an ‘invisible economy’ - is highly sensitive to climate change. Primary production is likely to be vulnerable to decreases in rainfall and increasing frequency of extreme events, particularly droughts.
The potential impacts of climate change may not be very high on a statewide basis, but larger impacts are possible for some regions and this is related to their sectoral, geographic and climatic composition. Regions with a large reliance on grain-fed primary production, like the Wimmera, may be more economically and socially vulnerable than others. Regions with coastal exposure are likely to be affected by sea-level rise and therefore exposed to associated infrastructure impacts. Regions with skifields may face a reduction to tourism.
Potential impacts can be managed through adaptation. However, there are barriers and limits to adaptation, so some degree of vulnerability will remain. In the shorter term, vulnerability will be encountered through extreme events becoming more frequent and/or larger. The extreme events most likely to increase in frequency and intensity are heatwaves, drought, fire, flooding from extreme rainfall and coastal storm surge. For 2070, when annual average temperatures may be 2°C warmer than present, the major issues will be related to the limits of adaptation being exceeded in a range of systems. Some groups of people are more vulnerable than others, as are some places. Much
greater emphasis is needed on identifying vulnerable regions and sectors, raising awareness, building adaptive capacity and implementing appropriate risk management measures.
Leanne Webb, Roger Jones and Kevin Hennessy
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
A more detailed examination of the impacts of climate change on Victoria can be found at www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. A comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts across Australia can be found in the Final Report of the Garnaut Climate Change Review, which is available at www.garnautreview.org.au
What is climate change likely to mean for your region?
Mallee
|  Projected changes to annual average temperature under a medium emissions scenario by 2030 |
Lodden Campaspe
|  Projected changes to annual average temperature under a high emissions scenario by 2070 |
Ovens-Murray
|  Projected percentage decrease to average annual rainfall under a medium emissions scenario by 2030 |
East Gippsland
Gippsland
Melbourne
|  Projected percentage decrease to average annual rainfall under a high emissions scenario by 2070 |
The impacts presented for the regions tend to focus on the negative effects of climate change. There will be some upside changes to local climates that are (at this stage) not well understood or documented. Local entrepeneurs and producers will be best placed to take up these opportunities with government providing information and support for the uptake of such opportunities.
The latest climate change science and its global impacts
Early in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its comprehensive Fourth Assessment Report on climate change science, concluding:
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal..."
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [humaninduced] greenhouse gas concentrations."
"Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries... even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised."
These alarming conclusions are based on scientific research only up to early 2006 and may be conservative. A number of recent publications suggest that some aspects of climate change have accelerated, with recent observed changes at the upper levels or even outside the range of changes projected by the IPCC for the early 21st century.
Observed rates of sea level rise over the last decade are at the upper range of IPCC projections. Recent research indicates that the upper limit of their projected sea level rise of 59cm in 2100 may be too low, as it does not take into account possible accelerated melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The observed minimum area of Arctic sea ice in September 2007 set a new record low, which was substantially smaller than the lowest value of all IPCC projected Arctic sea ice decreases for the 2000s and consistent with the lowest projected value for the 2030s.
Observed decreases of annual rainfall over south eastern Australia since 1970 are already greater than the range of projected decreases due to climate change for 2030. Emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels in 2005 and 2006 were greater than in all the emission scenarios used by the IPCC.
Even with no further emissions of carbon dioxide, the observed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in 2005 have likely committed the world to future global-average warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above pre-industrial temperatures, double to seven times the warming already observed. This range of committed warming exceeds the perceived threshold for dangerous anthropogenic climate change.
Professor David Karoly
Federation Fellow, University of Melbourne, and member of the Premier’s Climate Change Reference Group
2.2 Our current emissions
Victoria must play its part in Australia’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To date Victoria has enjoyed a competitive advantage in many industries due to the availability of low cost, accessible fossil fuel resources such as brown coal. Now - to reduce emissions - we must change our approach to these resources and turn to low emissions and renewable sources of energy.
Victoria’s emission reduction challenge
Victoria faces some particularly difficult challenges in reducing emissions because of our heavy reliance on brown coal (a high greenhouse gas emitting fuel) to generate electricity. To move to a low carbon future, we will need to adopt a new approach to managing and using our energy resources.
Our stationary energy sector will need to undergo a significant transformation, especially in the production of electricity. We will need to invest to a much greater extent in renewable and low emissions energy technologies, such as wind, solar, geothermal and biomass. One such technology is carbon capture and storage, which involves the
storage of carbon dioxide emissions in underground geological reservoirs. This technology offers the potential for very deep cuts in Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Making these changes will not only help to reduce emissions and the longer term impacts of climate change, it will also boost Victoria’s chances of taking up the new opportunities emerging as other countries shift to low carbon economies. It will also have many flow-on benefits in other areas, such as better building design, cleaner industries, less pollution and the restoration of damaged land.
The Victorian Government has long argued for the introduction of a national emissions trading scheme. Victoria will play its part in ensuring the success of the new national emissions trading scheme (the CPRS). While the commencement of the CPRS will provide a strong incentive to reduce emissions, shift to cleaner sources of energy and adopt more energy efficient practices, the Victorian Government will still need to take action in key areas to contribute to the effective, efficient and equitable operation of the scheme.
The Government reserves its final opinion on the design of the CPRS until the relevant legislation is passed by the Commonwealth Parliament. In the event that the final CPRS design fundamentally differs from the proposals currently set out by the Commonwealth in key areas, the Victorian Government will consider its options for addressing any outstanding gaps.
Victoria’s emissions
Victoria’s net greenhouse gas emissions are calculated by subtracting carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere and stored in plants from the total carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions. From 1990 to 2006, Victoria’s net greenhouse gas emissions increased by 13.1 million tonnes (Mt) or 12.2 per cent (Figure 2).
Figure 2 - Trends in Victoria's net greenhouse gas emissions - 1990 to 2006. Source: Victorian Greenhouse Gas Inventory - Information Sheet (2006)
In 2006 (the most recent data published by the Commonwealth), Victoria produced 120.3 Mt of CO2-e – around 21 per cent of Australia’s national emissions. Carbon dioxide accounted for around 80 per cent of Victoria’s emissions; methane accounted for 15 per cent and nitrous oxide 4 per cent. The energy sector (including transport) was responsible for more than 80 per cent of the State’s total emissions (Figure 3).
Figure 3 - Victoria's greenhouse gas emissions (breakdown by sector) - 2006. Energy sector 67%, transport 16%, waste 3%, agriculture 12%, industrial processes 2%.
Source: Victorian Greenhouse Gas Inventory - Information Sheet (2006). Note: The land-use change and forestry sector is not included in this chart as it acts as a carbon sink.
From 1990 to 2006, emissions from the industrial processes and agriculture sectors increased by 9.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. Waste sector emissions declined by 15 per cent and the land-use change and forestry sector moved from being a net source of emissions in 1990 to a net sink of emissions in 2006, due largely to the impact of controls on land clearing.
The main driver of the increase in Victoria’s emissions since 1990 is economic activity and growth, with emissions from the commercial sector increasing by almost 80 per cent from 1990 to 2006 - demonstrating the importance of de-coupling emissions growth from economic activity.
Per capita emissions provide a good means of comparing emissions from different states and territories, or between countries, as they take population size into account. In 2006, Victoria’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions were 23.5 tonnes CO2-e per person, in line with per capita emissions from NSW and below the economies of Queensland and Western Australia, which specialise in energy-intensive production for domestic and export markets.
While there are signs that Victoria is starting to bring down its emissions per capita and reduce its energy related emissions, we need to continue to decouple economic growth from emissions of greenhouse gases. We have made a start, but if we are to make the reductions in emissions that science tells us are necessary, driven largely by the CPRS, the way Victoria’s economy grows will need to continue to change.
However, Australia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions remain one of the highest levels in the world because of the dominant use of coal for electricity generation. Australia’s per capita emissions are nearly twice the OECD average and more than four times the world average.
State and Territory per capita emissions of greenhouse gases - 2006
| State/Territory | Emissions (tonnes of C02-e per person per year |
| Northern Territory Queensland Western Australia New South Wales Victoria South Australia Tasmania ACT | 76.9 41.8 34.2 23.5 23.5 17.9 17.4 3.3 |
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