Climate change in Victoria
Our climate is changing.
While Victoria already experiences a variable climate, the climate that we have known in the 20th century is unlikely to be the best guide for the future. As a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, we can expect our climate to grow warmer, drier and more variable.
Both here in Victoria and in other parts of the world, signs of a changing climate are evident. Over the course of the 20th century, the average global temperature has increased by 0.7°C - making it the warmest in the last 1,800 years. Since the 1950’s average annual temperature in Victoria have also been increasing. Between 1997 and 2007, the average maximum temperature was 0.6°C warmer than the 30-year average (1961 to 1990). In fact, 2007 was the warmest year on record for Victoria. During this same time, many areas across the state have experienced below average rainfall.
Climate change models are the best available tool for estimating how changes in concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions will change the climate. As our understanding of processes that govern and interact with the climate system improve, so does the ability to predict what climate changes are likely to occur.
Using 23 international climate change models from different research groups around the world, CSIRO generates climate change projections for Australia.
Global climate models continue to improve in their ability to represent current global and regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and other variables, however some uncertainty will always remain. Information on climate change projections is provided in a range to allow for uncertainty in the future growth in greenhouse emissions, and for differences between the various climate models.
For more information, see the impacts of climate change.
Regional climate change projections for Victoria
In 2004, the Victorian Government released regional climate change projections for 10 regions of Victoria. This information was updated in 2008 following the release of the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and subsequent revised national climate change projections Climate Change in Australia.
The full national report is available at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Regional climate change projections for Victoria can be accessed from the links below. In addition, a state summary of these projections is also available.
DSE Climate Change State Projections Summary (PDF - 1.6 MB)
- Climate change in Port Phillip and Westernport
- in Corangamite
- in Glenelg Hopkins
- in the Wimmera
- in the Mallee
- in North Central
- in Goulburn Broken
- in the North East
- in East Gippsland
- in West Gippsland
Please note: Documents on this page are presented in PDF format. If you do not have the Adobe Reader, you can download a copy free from the Adobe web site
