Regional climate change projections for Victoria

The reports project temperature and rainfall in each region for 2030 and 2070 under three different emissions scenarios:

• lower emissions growth, assuming a rapid shift to less fossil-fuel intensive industries
• medium emissions growth, assuming a balanced use of different emissions sources, not just fossil fuel
• higher emissions growth, assuming a continuation of strong economic growth based on continued dependence on fossil fuels.

They show, for example, that under a higher emissions growth scenario, by 2070 Melbourne's temperatures would resemble those of present-day Echuca, and annual rainfall would be similar to present-day Seymour.

The reports also outline the impacts we can expect on our water, farming and primary production, and biodiversity.

Victorian projections have been generated from the national climate change projections in Climate change in Australia, which is available at http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au.

Regional climate change projections for Victoria can be accessed from the links below. In addition, a state summary of these projections is also available.

Climate Change in Victoria: A Summary (PDF - 1.6MB)

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.6°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Port Phillip and Westernport region (PDF - 1.0 MB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Yarra, Maribyrnong, Werribee and Bunyip Rivers is expected to decrease by up to 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Melbourne's temperatures would resemble those of present day Echuca, while annual rainfall would be similar to Seymour.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.4°C warmer 12% less rain	2.6°C warmer 21% less rain
  SUMMER	1.5°C warmer 4% less rain	3°C warmer   7% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.3°C warmer 3% less rain	2.6°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.1°C warmer 6% less rain	2.1°C warmer 11% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  MELBOURNE
  Frosts*	3	1	0
  Over 30°C	30	39	49
  Over 35°C	9	14	20
  Over 40°C	1	3	5
  Rainy Days**		- 10%	- 19%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3%	+ 5.9%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  CAPE SCHANCK
  Frosts*	0	0	0
  Over 30°C	11	16	22
  Over 35°C	2	4	6
  Over 40°C	0	0	1
  Rainy Days**		- 10%	- 19%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 2.3%	+ 4.5%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.4°C warmer with 12% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Corangamite region (PDF - 1022.1 KB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Barwon and Moorabool Rivers and Lake Corangamite is expected to decrease by up to 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, both temperatures and annual rainfall in Ballarat would resemble those of present day Maldon.

   

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.3°C warmer 11% less rain	2.5°C warmer 21% less rain
  SUMMER	1.4°C warmer 5% less rain	2.7°C warmer   9% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.3°C warmer 3% less rain	2.4°C warmer 6% less rain
  WINTER	1.1°C warmer 6% less rain	2.1°C warmer 11% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  BALLARAT
  Frosts*	46	25	14
  Over 30°C	21	30	40
  Over 35°C	4	8	12
  Over 40°C	0	1	1
  Rainy Days**		- 9%	- 18%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5%	+ 9.6%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  LISMORE
  Frosts*	15	6	2
  Over 30°C	33	42	52
  Over 35°C	8	13	19
  Over 40°C	1	2	4
  Rainy Days**		- 9%	- 17%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.5%	+ 8.6%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.2°C warmer with 7% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.4°C warmer with 13% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Glenelg Hopkins region (PDF - 855.7 KB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greater increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Hopkins and Glenelg Rivers is expected to decrease by between 10% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Warrnambool's temperatures would resemble those of present day Horsham, while annual rainfall would be similar
  to Hamilton.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.3°C warmer 11% less rain	2.4°C warmer 21% less rain
  SUMMER	1.4°C warmer 5% less rain	2.7°C warmer   9% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.3°C warmer 3% less rain	2.4°C warmer 6% less rain
  WINTER	1.1°C warmer 7% less rain	2.1°C warmer 12% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  HAMILTON
  Frosts*	26	11	5
  Over 30°C	31	39	48
  Over 35°C	8	13	19
  Over 40°C	1	2	3
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5%	+ 9.7%

  
  

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  WARRNAMBOOL
  Frosts*	9	4	1
  Over 30°C	17	22	28
  Over 35°C	6	7	10
  Over 40°C	1	1	3
  Rainy Days**		- 10%	- 18%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.6%	+ 6.9%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.6°C warmer with 12% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Wimmera region (PDF - 794.6 KB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Wimmera-Avon River system is expected to decrease by between 10% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Horsham's temperatures would resemble those of present day Wentworth in New South Wales, while annual rainfall
  would be similar to Nhill.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.4°C warmer 11% less rain	2.7°C warmer 21% less rain
  SUMMER	1.3°C warmer 4% less rain	2.9°C warmer   7% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.3°C warmer 3% less rain	2.6°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.1°C warmer 7% less rain	2.2°C warmer 13% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  HORSHAM
  Frosts*	35	16	9
  Over 30°C	51	64	80
  Over 35°C	17	24	34
  Over 40°C	3	5	9
  Rainy Days**		- 10%	- 19%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 2.1%	+ 4%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.8°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Mallee region (PDF - 819.3 KB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, based on calculations for elsewhere in the Murray-Darling Basin, the amount of water available for irrigation from the lower Murray is expected to decrease by as much as 45%.

  By 2070, under a high emissions growth scenario, temperature and annual rainfall in Mildura would resemble those of present day Wilcannia in New South Wales.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.5°C warmer 11% less rain	2.9°C warmer 20% less rain
  SUMMER	1.6°C warmer 2% less rain	3.1°C warmer   3% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.4°C warmer 2% less rain	2.8°C warmer 3% less rain
  WINTER	1.2°C warmer 8% less rain	2.3°C warmer 16% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  MILDURA
  Frosts*	24	10	5
  Over 30°C	81	101	123
  Over 35°C	32	45	59
  Over 40°C	6	11	18
  Rainy Days**		- 10%	- 19%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		- 1.1%	- 2%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  OUYEN
  Frosts*	18	7	3
  Over 30°C	79	99	120
  Over 35°C	31	43	58
  Over 40°C	6	11	18
  Rainy Days**		- 11%	- 21%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		- 1.1%	- 2.1%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.8°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the North Central region (PDF - 918.3 KB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Campaspe, Loddon and Avoca Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Bendigo’s temperatures would resemble those of present day Ouyen, while annual rainfall would be similar to Charlton.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.5°C warmer 11% less rain	2.9°C warmer 20% less rain
  SUMMER	1.6°C warmer 2% less rain	3.1°C warmer   4% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.4°C warmer 2% less rain	2.7°C warmer 4% less rain
  WINTER	1.2°C warmer 7% less rain	2.2°C warmer 13% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  DONALD
  Frosts*	26	13	7
  Over 30°C	52	67	85
  Over 35°C	15	23	34
  Over 40°C	1	4	7
  Rainy Days**		- 9%	- 18%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 2%	+ 3.9%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  BENDIGO
  Frosts*	35	20	11
  Over 30°C	44	59	75
  Over 35°C	11	18	28
  Over 40°C	1	3	5
  Rainy Days**		- 8.1%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.6%	+ 6.9%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.5°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.8°C warmer with 10% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the Goulburn Broken region (PDF - 1.4 MB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Goulburn and Broken Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Benalla’s temperatures would resemble those of present day Hay in New South Wales, while annual rainfall would be similar to Rutherglen.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.5°C warmer 11% less rain	2.9°C warmer 20% less rain
  SUMMER	1.7°C warmer 2% less rain	3.2°C warmer   4% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.4°C warmer 2% less rain	2.8°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.2°C warmer 7% less rain	2.2°C warmer 12% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  BENALLA
  Frosts*	46	28	17
  Over 30°C	60	78	97
  Over 35°C	14	24	37
  Over 40°C	1	3	6
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.2%	+ 6.1%

  
  

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  MANGALORE
  Frosts*	39	21	14
  Over 30°C	47	63	81
  Over 35°C	13	20	31
  Over 40°C	2	3	6
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.2%	- 6.1%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.5°C warmer with 5% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.9°C warmer with 10% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the North East region (PDF - 1.1 MB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Upper Murray, Kiewa and Ovens Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, temperatures and annual rainfall in Rutherglen would resemble those of present day Dubbo in New South Wales.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.6°C warmer 10% less rain	3°C warmer 19% less rain
  SUMMER	1.7°C warmer 1% less rain	3.2°C warmer   2% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.5°C warmer 3% less rain	2.8°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.2°C warmer 7% less rain	2.3°C warmer 13% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  RUTHERGLEN
  Frosts*	81	54	40
  Over 30°C	63	81	99
  Over 35°C	17	27	41
  Over 40°C	2	4	8
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5.1%	+ 9.9%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  BEECHWORTH
  Frosts*	49	28	17
  Over 30°C	49	70	95
  Over 35°C	9	18	28
  Over 40°C	0	1	3
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 15%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.8%	+ 9.2%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.4°C warmer with 5% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.7°C warmer with 9% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate Change in East Gippsland (PDF - 1.1 MB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Mitchell, Tambo and Snowy Rivers is expected to decrease by up to 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Orbost's temperatures would resemble those of present day Nowra in New South Wales, while annual rainfall would be similar to Bairnsdale.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.5°C warmer 10% less rain	2.8°C warmer 18% less rain
  SUMMER	1.6°C warmer 1% less rain	3°C warmer   3% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.4°C warmer 3% less rain	2.7°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.2°C warmer 6% less rain	2.3°C warmer 12% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  ORBOST
  Frosts*	18	7	2
  Over 30°C	25	34	45
  Over 35°C	7	10	15
  Over 40°C	1	2	4
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 15%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.2%	+ 6.2%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  LAKES ENTRANCE
  Frosts*	6	1	0
  Over 30°C	14	19	25
  Over 35°C	4	5	8
  Over 40°C	1	1	2
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 15%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.9%	+ 9.5%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• By 2070 the region can expect to be:

  • 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
  • 2.6°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

  Climate change in the West Gippsland region (PDF - 1.5 MB)

  

  Regional Snapshot

  • Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
  • Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
  • Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
  • By 2070, runoff into the Thomson-Macalister and Latrobe Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%.

  By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Wonthaggi’s temperatures would resemble those of present day Seymour, while annual rainfall would be similar to Tooradin.

  By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:

  	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SPRING	1.4°C warmer 11% less rain	2.7°C warmer 20% less rain
  SUMMER	1.5°C warmer 3% less rain	3°C warmer   6% less rain
  AUTUMN	1.3°C warmer 3% less rain	2.6°C warmer 5% less rain
  WINTER	1.1°C warmer 6% less rain	2.2°C warmer 11% less rain

  Average number of days per year by 2070

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  SALE
  Frosts*	34	18	10
  Over 30°C	19	27	35
  Over 35°C	5	8	12
  Over 40°C	1	1	2
  Rainy Days**		- 8%	- 16%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.96%	+ 9.4%

  
   

  	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
  WONTHAGGI
  Frosts*	10	5	2
  Over 30°C	17	23	31
  Over 35°C	4	6	10
  Over 40°C	0	1	2
  Rainy Days**		- 9%	- 18%
  Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 1.4%	+ 2.7%

  * 2°C or less
  ** Greater than 5mm

  
  

  

• We all hear about climate change but what is it exactly? This easy to understand information will guide you through it and answer some common questions.
• Find out more

Adapting to climate change

In the coming decades Victoria can expect:

• increased temperatures
• drier conditions
• more frequent extreme events such as extreme rainfall, bushfires and droughts.

Despite global and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some level of climate change is now inevitable. We need to adapt the way we do things to maintain Victoria's social, environmental and economic wellbeing.

Adapting to climate change means taking action to manage or reduce the consequences of a hotter, drier and more extreme climate. It also involves taking advantage of the opportunities these changes may present.

Adaptation can take many different forms.

It includes:

• education and training about climate change
• planning emergency responses for more severe extreme weather events
• revising planning standards for vulnerable areas
• developing technical and scientific solutions, such as drought-resistant crops or increasing thermal performance standards for buildings.

Adaptation also involves actively managing our environment to improve the resilience of key natural resources like water catchments.

It makes sense to act now, because we get immediate benefits as well as reducing the cost and extent of remedial action in the future. For example, improving water efficiency provides benefits now, but also prepares us for times when there is less water available.

Preparing for climate change is not something that governments can do alone - it is a shared responsibility that requires partnerships across the community so that individuals, businesses, communities and governments can prepare effectively and efficiently.

Find out more

Find out more about the adaptation actions the Victorian Government is taking in response to climate change:

• Future coasts
• Research and innovation

• The Future Coasts Program is led by the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment in partnership with the Department of Planning and Community Development.

  Climate change projections forecast that sea levels will rise over the coming century. In Victoria this will be felt through increases in the frequency and severity of extreme sea-level events such as storm surges, flooding and erosion, which will increase the risks to coastal areas.

  The $13.5 million investment by the Victorian Government in the Program will help Victoria better understand and plan for the risks associated with climate change, by producing information about the impacts of sea level rise along the Victorian coast, with a focus on coastal erosion and flooding. This information, along with guidance material, will be publicly available to coastal land managers and decision makers to use when planning for and managing coastal areas. This information has the potential to be used by the private sector.

  The work of Future Coasts will contribute to a coordinated policy framework that recognises the responsibilities of other organisations that have a role in planning for and managing the impacts of climate change on Victoria’s coast.

  No results were found

  
  

  

• International Tundra Experiment (ITEX)
  

  The Department of Sustainability and Environment is a supporting partner for the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) - a scientific network of experiments focusing on the impact of climate change on selected plant species in tundra and alpine vegetation. The Victorian Government is supporting one of only two southern hemisphere components of this research, which involves warming parts of the alpine environment with small open topped chambers to observe how species, plant communities and landscapes are likely to respond to climate change.

  This research in the Victorian alps includes studies of genetics, ecology, species interactions, and land management and will lead to a better understanding of the management actions most likely to effectively conserve biodiversity in the face of climate change.

  
  

  Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
  

  The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research, established in September 2009 is located at the University of Melbourne as a centre of excellence in developing solutions to the impacts of climate change on Victoria.

  The Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Research Centre (VicCCCAR) supports the Victorian Government's other climate change investments and programs, help the Government address knowledge gaps and build on existing capacity and learning. The Centre will inform government decisions about how to best respond to changes in our climate, encourage the inclusion of adaptation needs into government planning by bringing together cross-disciplinary expertise.

  The Centre will be co-ordinated through the University of Melbourne with other members from Monash, La Trobe and RMIT universities. It aims to foster a collaborative effort between the Victorian Government and Victorian universities to undertake climate change adaptation research and assist in building the capacity of both the Victorian Government and the university sector.

  Increasing Victoria's capacity to undertake multi-disciplinary research on climate change adaptation, specific to Victoria, will underpin evidence-based policy development. By supporting the Research Centre, Victoria will also be able to engage with, and contribute to, national and global networks, research knowledge gaps between traditional disciplines, and provide direct evidence to support to the ability of government and the community to make better choices in an uncertain future.

  The Victorian Government committed $5 million dollars to the Centre over the next 5 years.

  Professor Rod Keenan, former head of the Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science within the University of Melbourne is the inaugural Director of the Centre. Professor Keenan oversees the development of a research program that will include annual forums to showcase research, a research grants program to complement the national adaptation research efforts, regional think tanks and a visiting fellowship program to draw on international expertise.

  More more information about the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research visit the VCCCAR website.
  

  Project updates
  

  • VCCCAR Update September 2009
  • VCCCAR Update June 2010

  If you would like to receive future newsletters or updates email climate.change@dse.vic.gov.au to register your details.
  
  

• The Future Coasts Program is undertaking a state-wide assessment of the physical impacts of sea level rise and storms on Victoria’s coast, with a focus on the areas with the greatest potential for erosion and flooding.
  

  The state-wide assessment will be used by the Future Coasts Program as a basis to develop guidelines, tools and recommendations for coastal planning and policy in Victoria. It builds on the methodology used in the Australian Government’s National Coastal Risk Assessment, providing a higher level of detail to better assist strategic planning at the regional level.

  The state-wide assessment is made up of a range of components, as outlined in the below diagram. The components build upon each other to highlight the areas along the Victorian coast with the most potential for erosion and flooding.

   The Australian Government, in December 2010 released sea level rise maps for 6 major urban centers around Australia, including the Port Phillip and Western Port areas in Victoria. The maps show the potential extent of flooding from a sea level rise of 0.5m, 0.8m and 0.1 m and use the Victorian Government's digital elevation model as a basis for the mapping.

  
  

  The digital elevation model (DEM) represents the elevation of the Victorian coast from AHD (Australian Height Datum), which is approximately mean sea level, to 10 meters above AHD. This data can be displayed or analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and other tools. The DEM data is now available.

  The coastal landform and geomorphology classification outlines what features (beach, cliff etc) and substrate (sand, rock etc) the coast is made up of. It has been developed as part of the Australian Government’s Smartline project, which is part of the National Coastal Risk Assessment. The Victorian assessment draws on this data to define general areas along the Victorian coast where erosion and accretion are likely to occur.

  Sea level rise scenarios: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) A1FI emission scenario are being used for the Victorian state-wide coastal climate change assessment. The A1F1 scenario is the basis for the Victorian Government’s policy of planning for sea level rise of no less than 0.8m by 2100.

  CSIRO modelling of extreme sea levels provides a technical analysis of extreme sea levels, taking into account storm surge, the highest tides and sea level rise under the A1FI scenario. Under these conditions, the modelling indicates the projected heights of the sea levels along the Victoria coast. To determine which areas of the coast are more likely to be flooded, the assessment analyses the modelled data of extreme sea heights against the elevations in the DEM.

  The Victorian state-wide assessment will assist in the selection of locations across Victoria in which local assessments will be undertaken. The local assessments will test a range of methods to analyse the impacts of sea level rise as well as provide practical information for planning practitioners and local land and infrastructure managers to make decisions.Future Coasts will work closely with local government and other project partners to deliver the local assessments.

  For further information about the assessments, refer to the 3 pass approach.

  The science basis for the Victorian and local assessments is described in greater detail on the sea level rise page of this website.

  The “Victorian Coastal Hazard Guide” will replace work which was underway to produce the “Victorian Coastal Climate Change Hazard Guideline.”  The goal of the Guide is to support decision makers and stakeholders in understanding a range of existing coastal hazards such as inundation and erosion and the implication that climate change may have on these hazards.

  Generally the Guide aims to:

  • provide information on coastal hazards and the effects of climate change on these hazards;
  • provide a risk-based approach for incorporating coastal hazards and climate change considerations into the decision making processes associated with managing coastal areas; and
  • promote the use of adaptive management and no-regrets response options to improve adaptive capacity.

  Climate change presents complex coastal management and future policy challenges for Victoria. This will require foresight, leadership, and a coordinated response from all levels of government, within an agreed framework.

  Future Coasts is working with other government departments to prepare recommendations for a policy framework to guide planning for and managing the impacts of climate change on Victoria’s coast. Such a policy framework will need to recognise the range of organisations responsible for planning and managing coastal areas and complement parallel government processes such as the Minister for Planning’s Coastal Climate Change Advisory Committee, the creation of new Natural Resource and Catchment Authorities and the Climate Change Act. Such a policy framework provides an opportunity for Victoria to support and influence national policy on adapting to the coastal impacts of climate change.

  The work of the Future Coasts Program helps us to better understand the key impacts, opportunities and policy options to respond to the impacts of sea level rise on Victoria’s coast. A series of workshops were held in 2009 which provided a great opportunity to gain and share knowledge and local perspectives from stakeholders. A workshop summary is available.
  

• Laser imaging and digital elevation models (DEM) are used in Future Coasts to provide high resolution 3D representations of the land and sea floor. The complete set of the topographic (land) DEM data is now available, and can be accessed via the accessing future coasts data webpage.

  The topographic (land-based) and bathymetric (sea-floor) digital elevation models (DEM) are being captured in separate projects along the entire Victorian coast. The majority of the topographic DEM capture took place in summer 2007/08. The data has been processed and quality assured and the complete set is now available.
  

  
  The image below is an example of a 3D visualisation of a DEM based on Phillip Island.
  

  
  

  Click on the pdf images below to view regional DEM maps along the Victorian coast:
  
  

  • Coastal DEM SA - Warrnambool (PDF - 273 KB)

  • Coastal DEM Warrnambool - Torquay (PDF - 425 KB)

  • Coastal DEM Lorne - San Remo (PDF - 903 KB)

  • Coastal DEM San Remo - Seaspray (PDF - 539 KB)

  • Coastal DEM Seaspray - NSW (PDF - 575 KB)
  
  
  The maps shown below are examples of the DEM data applied to create two-dimensional maps of elevation at the local scale.
  
  
  
  
  
  A 2D representation of the topographic DEM data of Warrnambool - full size map - 449KB (opens in new window)
  

   

   

   

  
  
  
  
  
  

  A 2D representation of the topographic DEM data of Yambuk - full size map - 398KB (opens in new window)
  
  

   

   

  
  
  
  

  A 2D representation of the topographic DEM data of Peterborough - full size map - 344KB (opens in new window)
  
  

   

   

  This topographic and bathymetric elevation data will be combined with modelling sea level rise, storm surge, inundation and erosion to identify how the coastline is likely to change over time. This modelling will inform where longer-term adaptation work should be focussed. The final package of outcomes from Future Coasts will include a geographic information systems (GIS) tool which will help identify areas along the Victorian coast at greatest risk from sea level rise and storm surge.
  
  The 3D view below, of the bathymetry (sea floor) in southern Port Phillip Bay highlights the shallow water in blue and the shipping channel in red. The depths are enhanced with an exaggerated vertical scale to create the 3D image.
  
  

  
  
  The image below shows the bathymetry and adjacent topography in southern Port Phillip Bay. This is a birds-eye view of the same area as depicted in the image above.
  
  
  
  
  Sections of the Future Coasts DEM have already been utilised by a number of public and private organisations and for a variety of projects.
  

  Future Coasts is currently using the DEM for modelling the potential inundation extent of sea level rise and the effects of storm tides on the Victorian coast. This work is being processed and quality assured and will be released as a GIS dataset in mid 2011.
  
  The Future Coasts DEM is a very accurate, versatile and advanced piece of spatial information, and can be used for a variety of specialised uses, such as environmental management projects and residential or commercial development projects.

• The table below lists when the anticipated timing of key events and release dates of Future Coasts information.

  Updated topographic digital elevation model	This provides an overview of what the land along Victoria's coast looks like. It extends from sea level to 10m elevation.	Now available
  Practitioner Workshop Information	This information is from workshops with practitioners working for coastal council associations, land management authorities that discussed the impacts  and responses to climate change on the coast. This information will feed in the the Impacts and Responses Paper.	Now available
  Storm surge and coastal processes modelling	CSIRO has conducted storm surge and inundation coastal process modelling along the entire Victorian coastline. The reports are available under the Resources and Publications section.	Now available
  Victorian Coastal Hazard Guide	The goal of the Guide is to support decision makers and stakeholders in understanding a range of existing coastal hazards such as inundation and erosion and the implication that climate change may have on these hazards. The primary audience for the Guide consists of land managers, council planners, engineering and planning consultants.
  Local Coastal Climate Change Assessments	The land and sea DEM will be integrated with the modelling work to provide climate change assessments of the coastline. These assessments will be accessible to agencies and land managers to undertake further analysis of the impacts climate change.	2011- 2012
  Future Coasts Program report	The Future Coasts Program is providing a basis for government’s response to managing the impacts of climate change on the coast. The format for this response and package of information is currently being developed.	Mid 2011

  
  

• The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research, established in September 2009 is located at the University of Melbourne as a centre of excellence in developing solutions to the impacts of climate change on Victoria.

  The Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Research Centre (VicCCCAR) supports the Victorian Government's other climate change investments and programs, help the Government address knowledge gaps and build on existing capacity and learning. The Centre will inform government decisions about how to best respond to changes in our climate, encourage the inclusion of adaptation needs into government planning by bringing together cross-disciplinary expertise.

  The Centre will be co-ordinated through the University of Melbourne with other members from Monash, La Trobe and RMIT universities. It aims to foster a collaborative effort between the Victorian Government and Victorian universities to undertake climate change adaptation research and assist in building the capacity of both the Victorian Government and the university sector.

  Increasing Victoria's capacity to undertake multi-disciplinary research on climate change adaptation, specific to Victoria, will underpin evidence-based policy development. By supporting the Research Centre, Victoria will also be able to engage with, and contribute to, national and global networks, research knowledge gaps between traditional disciplines, and provide direct evidence to support to the ability of government and the community to make better choices in an uncertain future.

  The Victorian Government committed $5 million dollars to the Centre over the next 5 years.

  Professor Rod Keenan, former head of the Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science within the University of Melbourne is the inaugural Director of the Centre. Professor Keenan oversees the development of a research program that will include annual forums to showcase research, a research grants program to complement the national adaptation research efforts, regional think tanks and a visiting fellowship program to draw on international expertise.

  More more information about the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research  visit the VCCCAR website.
  

  Project updates
  

  If you would like to receive future newsletters or updates email climate.change@edse.vic.gov.au to register your details.
  
  

  • VCCCAR Update September 2009
  • VCCCAR Update June 2010

   

  
  
  
  
• We all hear about climate change but what is it exactly? This easy to understand information will guide you through it and answer some common questions.
• Find out more
• • Sea Level Rise Factsheet [PDF File - 813.3 KB]
  • Sea Level Rise FAQs [PDF File - 913.8 KB]
  • Sea Level Rise Reading List [PDF File - 308.9 KB]
    

  Recent satellite measurements have shown the rate of sea level rise is increasing - to a rate not seen for 5000 years. Between 1993 and 2003, the sea level increased to around 3mm per year. Since 2003 this rate has slowed slightly and current increases are around 2.5mm per year.

  Climate change projections indicate that sea levels will continue to rise along with more frequent and intense storms.

  The earth’s atmosphere has warmed substantially since the 19th century, largely due to human activity.

  As well as increasing the average global temperature, this warming is also causing sea levels to rise. Sea levels are rising as the warmth causes the ocean water to expand, and as freshwater melts from ice sheets (in Greenland and Antarctica) and glaciers.

  During the 20th century, global average sea level rose by around 1-2mm per year.
  

  Sea level rise will be felt through increases in the frequency and severity of extreme sea-level events such as storm surges, inundation (coastal flooding) and erosion. These events will increase the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, services and natural environments.

  The impacts of sea level rise will not be uniform across Victoria’s coast. As is currently the case with the local experience of erosion and tidal variation, a combination of factors including geology and the location of private and public buildings and infrastructure and other natural and built assets will influence the local impacts of sea level rise.

  The Victorian Coastal Vulnerability Assessment, being undertaken through the Victorian Government’s Future Coasts Program will provide more detail regarding the physical impacts of climate change on the Victorian coast.

  The Future Coasts Program is considering the physical impacts of sea level rise as a result of climate change. The coastal impacts of climate change as a result of changes to temperature, rainfall or ocean acidification are outside of the program scope.

  See climate change impacts for further information.
  

• Taking action on climate change is a shared responsibility. All levels of government, the Victorian community, business and industry have a role in preparing for the impacts of climate change.

   The Victorian Government, through the Future Coasts Program has a key role in providing accurate information and consistent approaches to the way decisions are made about climate change on the coast.

  The information being produced by the Future Coasts Program will be used by local government and a range of decision makers to support future adaptation planning for coastal areas with Victorian communities.

  Future Coasts is working closely with a wide range of coastal experts and organisations to implement the Program and is doing so in the context of a range of relevant government policies, as summarised below.
  

  Policy, planning and management
  

  The Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008 (VCS) is the coastal policy for planning and managing the coast. The VCS’s development and implementation is coordinated by the Victorian Coastal Council.
  

  The VCS requires coastal decision-makers to consider the impacts of climate change and coastal hazards, such as inundation and coastal erosion. The VCS identifies the need to provide guidance to planners and managers about how to consistently assess the physical vulnerability of the coast and take into account the impacts of climate change. This is a key objective of the Future Coasts Program.
  
  In December 2008 the Department of Planning and Community Development, under the direction of the Minister for Planning, amended the State Planning Policy Framework to reflect and implement the VCS to support land managers and responsible authorities to consider climate change impacts along the coast.
  
  In addition, the Ministerial Direction No.13 Managing Coastal Hazards and the Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and corresponding General Practice Note Managing coastal hazards and the coastal impacts of climate change were released. The General Practice Note identifies the need to understand and manage impacts of coastal hazards, via coastal hazard vulnerability assessments.
  
  The Coastal Climate Change Advisory Committee(CCCAC) has also been established to advise the Minister for Planning on how Victoria’s land-use planning and development controls can best support the VCS for managing the coastal impacts of sea level rise. The CCCAC has released an Issues and Options Paper.

• Future Coasts Special Bulletin No 6 - June 2010 (PDF - 402 KB)
  
  Future Coasts Special Bulletin No 4 - November 2009 (PDF - 723 KB)
  
  Future Coasts Special Bulletin No 3 - June 2009 (PDF - 1.1 MB)
  
  Future Coasts Special Bulletin No 2 - February 2009 (PDF - 947 KB)
  
  Future Coasts Special Bulletin - February 2009 (PDF - 1.5 MB)
  
  Future Coasts Newsletter - December 2008 (PDF - 1.1 MB)
  

  CSIRO Technical Reports: The Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Sea Levels in Port Phillip Bay and the Victorian Coast.
  

  These reports provide a technical analysis of extreme sea levels in Victoria under a range of climate change scenarios. Extreme sea levels include the impacts of storm surges, high tides, and sea level rise. This information will be useful as an input into strategic planning processes and to give an indication of where more detailed studies may be needed. The report does not define areas where development should or should not go ahead.

  CSIRO Report Report - Port Phillip Bay (PDF - 1.2MB)
  

  Fact Sheet - Climate change and extreme sea levels in Port Phillip Bay (PDF - 556 KB)
  

  CSIRO Report - Victorian Coast (PDF - 1.5 MB)

  Fact Sheet - Climate change and extreme sea levels along Victoria's coast (PDF 1.5MB)
  

  The following Q&As also provide information about the CSIRO Technical Reports and how the information should be used.
  
  CSIRO questions and answers (PDF - 14 KB)
  

  Workshops were held with coastal practitioners during 2009 to discuss the key impacts, challenges and opportunities for responding to sea level rise impacts, to inform work was initially titled the Impacts and responses paper. The information in this document was generated from discussions in these workshops and will inform the future directions that Victoria may need to take to manage sea level rise impacts along the coast. 
  

  Workshop Summary September 2009 (PDF - 95 KB)

  Planning for coastal climate change - an insight into international and national approaches, has been prepared by Barbara Norman, RMIT, for the Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development as part of the Future Coasts Program. The report outlines national and international approaches to addressing the issue of coastal climate change. The information contained within this report provides a high level overview which aims to assist the development of current projects, as well as learning and consideration of alternative approaches. It will be used to inform the Victorian Government’s investigations in the development of coastal adaptation measures, as part of the Future Coasts Program and the Minister for Planning’s Coastal Climate Change Advisory Committee.
  
  Planning for coastal climate change 2009 (PDF - 722 KB)
  
  Fact Sheet: Overview of the Future Coasts Program.
  
  Overview of the Future Coasts Program (PDF - 520 KB)
  
  Victorian Coastal Hazard Guide
  

  The Future Coasts Program is working to develop the “Victorian Coastal Hazard Guide”.  The Guide will replace work which was underway to produce the “Victorian Coastal Climate Change Hazard Guideline” (VCCCHG).  The goal of the Guide is to support decision makers and stakeholders in understanding a range of existing coastal hazards such as inundation and erosion and the implication that climate change may have on these hazards. The Guide is expected to be completed in 2012.

  The following websites provide information on projects that relate to the Future Coasts Program.

  ·  The Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008 - Victorian Coastal Council

  ·  Department of Sustainability and Environment - Coasts and Marine

  ·  OzCoasts - Australian Online Coastal Information

  ·  National Coastal Risk Assessment – Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

  ·  Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence along the Gippsland Coast - Gippsland Coastal Board

  ·  Integrated Assessments of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region - Westernport Greenhouse Alliance (WPGA)

  ·  Details of coastal planning initiatives undertaken by the Department of Planning and Community Development - Coastal Planning in Victoria

  ·  Lakes Entrance Flood Visualisation - this modelling work was undertaken by Peter Wheeler at Monash University

  ·  Loch Sport Flood Visualisation - this modelling work was undertaken by Peter Wheeler at Monash University, with funding support from the Gippsland Coastal Board and West Gippsland Catchment Management Authority.

• If you have any questions or require further information about Future Coasts, please contact us on 136 186 (DSE Customer Service Centre).
  
  Program Manager
  Doug Miller
  03 9637 9060
  
  
  East Victoria
  Victorian Local Climate Change Assessments
  Carole Macmillan
  03 5172 2520
  
  
  West Victoria
  Victorian Coastal Climate Change Hazard Guidelines
  Nicholas Wynn
  03 5226 4066
  
  
  Science and Modelling
  Jenni Rigby
  03 9637 8966
  
  
  Policy
  Kate Wood
  03 9637 8234
  
  
  Communication & Stakeholder Engagement
  Alex Edwards
  03 9637 8471
  
  
  Coastal Asset Information Collation Project
  Werner Hennecke
  03 8636 2379
  
  
  Postal Address
  Department of Sustainability and Environment
  PO Box 500
  East Melbourne
  Victoria Australia 3002
• Digital elevation models and data

• This video clip is a quick and clear introduction to adaptation for Victorians. It will help you understand what adaptation is and what it means for you. Video transcript
  

• This youtube clip is a quick and clear introduction to adaptation for Victorians. It will help you understand what adaptation is and what it means for you.
• Adapting to climate change video
• We all hear about climate change but what is it exactly? This easy to understand information will guide you through it and answer some common questions.
• This youtube clip is a quick and clear introduction to adaptation for Victorians. It will help you understand what adaptation is and what it means for you.
• Short visual beach montage – birds, water, early sunrise, distant city buildings.
  Presenter walks along a peaceful coastal beach.
  
  Dr Graeme Pearman, Climate change scientist, Monash University: The climate of the earth is changing and the best science assesses that these changes are mostly due to us.
  
  Our presenter is now walking alongside the Werribee River.
  
  Graeme Pearman: Managing the risk of climate change is about two things. Firstly we can reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere.
  
  Secondly, we can adapt to the change in climate that has occurred and the changes to the climate into the future.
  
  Adaptation is modifying the way we actually behave and do things, in order to be more appropriate for the future climate.
  
  Sunset and footage inside Bureau of Meteorology.
  
  Kevin Hennessy, CSIRO Research Scientist: There is clear evidence for global warming over the past century with the past decade being the warmest on record since 1850.
  
  Most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to an increase in greenhouse gases from human activities such as land use change, agriculture and burning of fossil-fuels.
  
  Greenhouse gas levels will continue to increase in the future.
  
  For Victoria, we expect an increase in temperature, decreases in rain fall, frosts, and snow and increases in heatwaves, fires, droughts, floods and storm surges.
  These changes will have mostly negative impacts on a range of sectors such as water, agriculture, biodiversity, health and emergency services.
  
  Southern Cross Station, commuters in fast motion and traffic.
  
  North Melbourne Station, presenter walks along and talks to camera.
  
  Jess Fritze, Victorian Council of Social Service: To adapt to climate change, our whole community will need to make changes in the way we live day to day as well as bigger changes to our health, public transport and emergency service systems, the way we design our cities and towns, and our economy.
  
  While climate change will affect everyone, people living on low incomes and those who are disadvantaged will have less capacity to adapt.
  
  However, many of the changes that will help us adapt to climate change have other social and environmental benefits.
  
  Extreme heat affects everyone – but older people and people with disabilities and chronic illness are more at risk, especially when living in poor quality housing.
  
  As the effects of climate change worsen over time we need to support communities on the front line to adapt, especially those who have limited resources to do so.
  
  Dry lake bed, presenter walks through the dried lake bed while speaking.
  
  Christine Forster, Victorian Ministerial Reference Council for Climate Change Adaptation: Adapting to climate change means that humans, plants and animals will have to find new ways of living in their environment. Less water, more frequent bushfires and hotter summers will threaten the ecosystems that we all depend on.
  
  Some of our native plants and animals won’t be able to adapt, and damage to the environment will be irreversible. Others that are more resilient will move to a more suitable environment and perhaps use different food sources.
  
  We will need to manage different threats. New weeds, pests and plant and animal diseases will challenge agriculture and our livestock enterprises.
  
  In Victoria, farmers have been adapting to climate change for some time. Irrigators have had to make the best out of the reduced water allocations that they have had from our stressed rivers and lakes. And in some areas, farmers have had to change from pasture production to growing crops.
  
  Adaptation to climate change means that we will all have to find different ways we do things.
  
  Port Phillip Bay beach – presenter walks along the coast again with the Melbourne skyline in the distant background.
  
  Graeme Pearman: We don’t always know everything we’d like to know in order to manage the risk of climate change, but we have to act anyway.
  
  In most cases, you as individuals will be in the best position to assess what your options for adaptation really are.
  
  You may seek guidance from others who have experiences and exposures similar to your own, but in the end you must set your own objectives for change.
  
  Humans are resilient; and we have in our hands the capacity to adapt to the challenges of climate change.
  
  FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT www.climatechange.vic.gov.au
  Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria.

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