Future climate

Regional climate change projections for the ten regions of Victoria show what we can expect from our climate in the future.

The regional projections are based on information from 23 global climate models from different research groups around the world.

About the climate change projections

The reports project temperature and rainfall in each region for 2030 and 2070 under three different emissions scenarios:

  • lower emissions growth, assuming a rapid shift to less fossil-fuel intensive industries
  • medium emissions growth, assuming a balanced use of different emissions sources, not just fossil fuel
  • higher emissions growth, assuming a continuation of strong economic growth based on continued dependence on fossil fuels.

They show, for example, that under a higher emissions growth scenario, by 2070 Melbourne's temperatures would resemble those of present-day Echuca, and annual rainfall would be similar to present-day Seymour.

The reports also outline the impacts we can expect on our water, farming and primary production, and biodiversity.

Victorian projections have been generated from the national climate change projections in Climate change in Australia, which is available at http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au.

Regional climate change projections for Victoria can be accessed from the links below. In addition, a state summary of these projections is also available.

Climate Change in Victoria: A Summary (PDF - 1.6MB)

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Uncertainty

Projections of future climate are a useful tool to consider the possible implications of climate change. While climate science and computer modelling have advanced significantly, no computer model can give a single or definite answer to what the future will look like. There are generally three sources of uncertainty:

  • Modelling uncertainty - from incomplete understanding of the climate system, and our inability to model it imperfectly.
  • Natural climate variability - from both internal and external factors on the climate system.
  • Emission uncertainty - from not knowing the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions.
These projections should be used more as a guide to better understand what our future may look like. It is not intended that they be used for more detailed impact of vulnerability assessments.

 

 

 

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Please note:

Documents on this page are presented in PDF format. If you don’t have the Adobe Reader, download a free copy from the Adobe web site.

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New for 2013

Climate change impacts on snow in Victoria: A Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research report