Corangamite
By 2070 the region can expect to be:
- 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
- 2.4°C warmer with 12% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
Climate change in the Corangamite region (PDF - 1022.1 KB)
Regional Snapshot
- Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
- Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
- Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
- By 2070, runoff into the Barwon and Moorabool Rivers and Lake Corangamite is expected to decrease by up to 50%.
By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, both temperatures and annual rainfall in Ballarat would resemble those of present day Maldon.
By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
| LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|
| SPRING | 1.3°C warmer 11% less rain |
2.5°C warmer 21% less rain |
| SUMMER | 1.4°C warmer 5% less rain |
2.7°C warmer 9% less rain |
| AUTUMN | 1.3°C warmer 3% less rain |
2.4°C warmer 6% less rain |
| WINTER | 1.1°C warmer 6% less rain |
2.1°C warmer 11% less rain |
Average number of days per year by 2070
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| BALLARAT | |||
| Frosts* | 46 | 25 | 14 |
| Over 30°C | 21 | 30 | 40 |
| Over 35°C | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Over 40°C | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rainy Days** | - 9% | - 18% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | + 5% | + 9.6% | |
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| LISMORE | |||
| Frosts* | 15 | 6 | 2 |
| Over 30°C | 33 | 42 | 52 |
| Over 35°C | 8 | 13 | 19 |
| Over 40°C | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Rainy Days** | - 9% | - 17% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | + 4.5% | + 8.6% | |
* 2°C or less
** Greater than 5mm
