East Gippsland
By 2070 the region can expect to be:
- 1.4°C warmer with 5% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
- 2.7°C warmer with 9% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
Climate Change in East Gippsland (PDF - 1.1 MB)
Regional Snapshot
- Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
- Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
- Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
- By 2070, runoff into the Mitchell, Tambo and Snowy Rivers is expected to decrease by up to 50%.
By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Orbost's temperatures would resemble those of present day Nowra in New South Wales, while annual rainfall would be similar to Bairnsdale.
By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
| LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|
| SPRING | 1.5°C warmer 10% less rain |
2.8°C warmer 18% less rain |
| SUMMER | 1.6°C warmer 1% less rain |
3°C warmer 3% less rain |
| AUTUMN | 1.4°C warmer 3% less rain |
2.7°C warmer 5% less rain |
| WINTER | 1.2°C warmer 6% less rain |
2.3°C warmer 12% less rain |
Average number of days per year by 2070
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| ORBOST | |||
| Frosts* | 18 | 7 | 2 |
| Over 30°C | 25 | 34 | 45 |
| Over 35°C | 7 | 10 | 15 |
| Over 40°C | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Rainy Days** | - 8% | - 15% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | + 3.2% | + 6.2% | |
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| LAKES ENTRANCE |
|||
| Frosts* | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Over 30°C | 14 | 19 | 25 |
| Over 35°C | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Over 40°C | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Rainy Days** | - 8% | - 15% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | + 4.9% | + 9.5% | |
* 2°C or less
** Greater than 5mm
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