Mallee
By 2070 the region can expect to be:
- 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
- 2.8°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
Climate change in the Mallee region (PDF - 819.3 KB)
Regional Snapshot
- Hotter - greatest increases in temperature are expected in summer
- Drier - greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring
- Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity
- By 2070, based on calculations for elsewhere in the Murray-Darling Basin, the amount of water available for irrigation from the lower Murray is expected to decrease by as much as 45%.
By 2070, under a high emissions growth scenario, temperature and annual rainfall in Mildura would resemble those of present day Wilcannia in New South Wales.
By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
| LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|
| SPRING | 1.5°C warmer 11% less rain |
2.9°C warmer 20% less rain |
| SUMMER | 1.6°C warmer 2% less rain |
3.1°C warmer 3% less rain |
| AUTUMN | 1.4°C warmer 2% less rain |
2.8°C warmer 3% less rain |
| WINTER | 1.2°C warmer 8% less rain |
2.3°C warmer 16% less rain |
Average number of days per year by 2070
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MILDURA | |||
| Frosts* | 24 | 10 | 5 |
| Over 30°C | 81 | 101 | 123 |
| Over 35°C | 32 | 45 | 59 |
| Over 40°C | 6 | 11 | 18 |
| Rainy Days** | - 10% | - 19% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | - 1.1% | - 2% | |
| CURRENT | LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| OUYEN | |||
| Frosts* | 18 | 7 | 3 |
| Over 30°C | 79 | 99 | 120 |
| Over 35°C | 31 | 43 | 58 |
| Over 40°C | 6 | 11 | 18 |
| Rainy Days** | - 11% | - 21% | |
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | - 1.1% | - 2.1% | |
* 2°C or less
** Greater than 5mm
What is climate change?
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