Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in the Corangamite region

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.4°C warmer with 12% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greatest increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Barwon and Moorabool Rivers and Lake Corangamite is expected to decrease by up to 50%

 

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, both temperatures and annual rainfall in Ballarat would resemble those of present day Maldon.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.3°C warmer 11% less rain		2.5°C warmer 21% less rain
SUMMER		1.4°C warmer 5% less rain		2.7°C warmer 9% less rain
AUTUMN		1.3°C warmer 3% less rain		2.4°C warmer 6% less rain
WINTER		1.1°C warmer 6% less rain		2.1°C warmer 11% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
BALLARAT
Frosts*	46	25	14
Over 30°C	21	30	40
Over 35°C	4	8	12
Over 40°C	0	1	1
Rainy days**		- 9%	- 18%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5 %	+ 9.6%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
LISMORE
Frosts*	15	6	2
Over 30°C	33	42	52
Over 35°C	8	13	19
Over 40°C	1	2	4
Rainy days**		- 9%	- 17%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.5%	+ 8.6%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in Corangamite printable version (PDF)