Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in the Glenelg Hopkins region

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.2°C warmer with 7% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.4°C warmer with 13% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greater increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Hopkins and Glenelg Rivers is expected to decrease by between 10% and more than 50%

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Warrnambool’s temperatures would resemble those of present day Horsham, while annual rainfall would be similar
to Hamilton.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.3°C warmer 11% less rain		2.4°C warmer 21% less rain
SUMMER		1.4°C warmer 5% less rain		2.7°C warmer 9% less rain
AUTUMN		1.3°C warmer 3% less rain		2.4°C warmer 6% less rain
WINTER		1.1°C warmer 7% less rain		2.1°C warmer 12% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
HAMILTON
Frosts*	26	11	5
Over 30°C	31	39	48
Over 35°C	8	13	19
Over 40°C	1	2	3
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5%	+ 9.7%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
WARRNAMBOOL
Frosts*	9	4	1
Over 30°C	17	22	28
Over 35°C	6	7	10
Over 40°C	1	1	3
Rainy days**		- 10%	- 18%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.6%	+ 6.9%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in Glenelg Hopkins printable version (PDF)