Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in Goulburn Broken

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.5°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.8°C warmer with 10% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greatest increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Goulburn and Broken Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%

 

 

 

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Benalla’s temperatures would
resemble those of present day Hay in New South Wales, while annual rainfall would be similar to Rutherglen.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.5°C warmer 11% less rain		2.9°C warmer 20% less rain
SUMMER		1.7°C warmer 2% less rain		3.2°C warmer 4% less rain
AUTUMN		1.4°C warmer 2% less rain		2.8°C warmer 5% less rain
WINTER		1.2°C warmer 7% less rain		2.2°C warmer 12% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
BENALLA
Frosts*	46	28	17
Over 30°C	60	78	97
Over 35°C	14	24	37
Over 40°C	1	3	6
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.2%	+ 6.1%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
MANGALORE
Frosts*	39	21	14
Over 30°C	47	63	81
Over 35°C	13	20	31
Over 40°C	2	3	6
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.2%	- 6.1%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in Goulburn Broken printable version (PDF)