Climate change in the Mallee
By 2070 the region can expect to be:
- 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
- 2.8°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
Regional Snapshot
> Hotter – greatest increases
in temperature are expected
in summer
> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall
are expected in spring
> Fewer rainy days and decreasing rainfall intensity
> By 2070, based on calculations
for elsewhere in the
Murray-Darling
Basin, the amount of water available
for irrigation from the lower Murray
is expected to decrease by as much
as 45%.
By 2070, under a high emissions growth scenario, temperature and annual rainfall in Mildura would resemble those of present day Wilcannia in New South Wales.
By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be: |
||||
|
LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
||
SPRING |
1.5°C warmer |
2.9°C warmer 20% less rain |
||
SUMMER |
1.6°C warmer 2% less rain |
3.1°C warmer 3% less rain |
||
AUTUMN |
1.4°C warmer 2% less rain |
2.8°C warmer 3% less rain |
||
WINTER |
1.2°C warmer 8% less rain |
2.3°C warmer 16% less rain |
||
Average number of days per year by 2070 |
|||
CURRENT |
LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
| MILDURA | |||
| Frosts* | 24 |
10 |
5 |
| Over 30°C | 81 |
101 |
123 |
| Over 35°C | 32 |
45 |
59 |
| Over 40°C | 6 |
11 |
18 |
| Rainy days** | - 10% |
- 19% |
|
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | - 1.1% |
- 2% |
|
CURRENT |
LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH |
|
| OUYEN | |||
| Frosts* | 18 |
7 |
3 |
| Over 30°C | 79 |
99 |
120 |
| Over 35°C | 31 |
43 |
58 |
| Over 40°C | 6 |
11 |
18 |
|
|
||
| Rainy days** | - 11% |
- 21% |
|
| Extreme daily rainfall intensity | - 1.1% |
- 2.1% |
|
| * 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm |
|||
Mallee
