Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in the North Central region

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.8°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greatest increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Campaspe, Loddon and Avoca Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%.

 

 

 

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Bendigo’s temperatures would resemble those of present day Ouyen, while annual rainfall would be similar to Charlton.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.5°C warmer 11% less rain		2.9°C warmer 20% less rain
SUMMER		1.6°C warmer 2% less rain		3.1°C warmer 4% less rain
AUTUMN		1.4°C warmer 2% less rain		2.7°C warmer 4% less rain
WINTER		1.2°C warmer 7% less rain		2.2°C warmer 13% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
DONALD
Frosts*	26	13	7
Over 30°C	52	67	85
Over 35°C	15	23	34
Over 40°C	1	4	7
Rainy days**		- 9%	- 18%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 2%	+ 3.9%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
BENDIGO
Frosts*	35	20	11
Over 30°C	44	59	75
Over 35°C	11	18	28
Over 40°C	1	3	5
Rainy days**		- 8.1%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3.6%	+ 6.9%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in the North Central region printable version (PDF)