Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in the North East region

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.5°C warmer with 5% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.9°C warmer with 10% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greatest increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Upper Murray, Kiewa and Ovens Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, temperatures and annual rainfall in Rutherglen would resemble those of present day Dubbo in New South Wales.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.6°C warmer 10% less rain		3°C warmer 19% less rain
SUMMER		1.7°C warmer 1% less rain		3.2°C warmer 2% less rain
AUTUMN		1.5°C warmer 3% less rain		2.8°C warmer 5% less rain
WINTER		1.2°C warmer 7% less rain		2.3°C warmer 13% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
RUTHERGLEN
Frosts*	81	54	40
Over 30°C	63	81	99
Over 35°C	17	27	41
Over 40°C	2	4	8
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 5.1%	+ 9.9%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
BEECHWORTH
Frosts*	49	28	17
Over 30°C	49	70	95
Over 35°C	9	18	28
Over 40°C	0	1	3
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 15%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.8%	+ 9.2%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in the North East region printable version (PDF)