Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in Port Phillip and Westernport

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.3°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.6°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greatest increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Yarra, Maribyrnong, Werribee and Bunyip Rivers is expected to decrease by up to 50%

 

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Melbourne’s temperatures would
resemble those of present day Echuca, while annual rainfall would be similar to Seymour.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.4°C warmer 12% less rain		2.6°C warmer 21% less rain
SUMMER		1.5°C warmer 4% less rain		3°C warmer 7% less rain
AUTUMN		1.3°C warmer 3% less rain		2.6°C warmer 5% less rain
WINTER		1.1°C warmer 6% less rain		2.1°C warmer 11% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
MELBOURNE
Frosts*	3	1	0
Over 30°C	30	39	49
Over 35°C	9	14	20
Over 40°C	1	3	5
Rainy days**		- 10%	- 19%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 3%	+ 5.9%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
CAPE SCHANCK
Frosts*	0	0	0
Over 30°C	11	16	22
Over 35°C	2	4	6
Over 40°C	0	0	1
Rainy days**		- 10%	- 19%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 2.3%	+ 4.5%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in Port Phillip and Westernport printable version (PDF)