Victoria Climage Change Summit

Climate change in West Gippsland

By 2070 the region can expect to be:

• 1.4°C warmer with 6% less rain under a lower greenhouse gas emission growth scenario
• 2.6°C warmer with 11% less rain under a higher greenhouse gas emission growth scenario

 

Regional Snapshot

> Hotter – greater increases in temperature are expected
in summer

> Drier – greatest decreases in rainfall are expected in spring

> Fewer rainy days but increasing rainfall intensity

> By 2070, runoff into the Thomson-Macalister and Latrobe Rivers is expected to decrease by between 5% and more than 50%

 

 

By 2070, under a higher emissions growth scenario, Wonthaggi’s temperatures would
resemble those of present day Seymour, while annual rainfall would be similar to Tooradin.

By 2070, seasonally the region can expect to be:
	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH		HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SPRING		1.4°C warmer 11% less rain		2.7°C warmer 20% less rain
SUMMER		1.5°C warmer 3% less rain		3°C warmer 6% less rain
AUTUMN		1.3°C warmer 3% less rain		2.6°C warmer 5% less rain
WINTER		1.1°C warmer 6% less rain		2.2°C warmer 11% less rain

Average number of days per year by 2070
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
SALE
Frosts*	34	18	10
Over 30°C	19	27	35
Over 35°C	5	8	12
Over 40°C	1	1	2
Rainy days**		- 8%	- 16%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 4.96%	+ 9.4%
	CURRENT	LOWER EMISSIONS GROWTH	HIGHER EMISSIONS GROWTH
WONTHAGGI
Frosts*	10	5	2
Over 30°C	17	23	31
Over 35°C	4	6	10
Over 40°C	0	1	2
Rainy days**		- 9%	- 18%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity		+ 1.4%	+ 2.7%
* 2°C or less ** Greater than 5mm

Climate Change in West Gippsland printable version (PDF)