The Victorian Government has partnered with CSIRO to help Victorian communities prepare for climate change by providing authoritative and up-to-date information.

CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre developed local-scale climate projections data for Victoria at a 5 km by 5 km scale.

The projections cover average and extreme temperature and rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation out to 2090 for moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

The new research supports what we know from previous projections, as well as giving some new insights at a local scale into the hottest hot day temperatures, and rainfall around mountain ranges.

How can I use the information and data available from Victorian Climate Projections 2019?

Victorian Climate Projections 2019 has produced a range of information products to help people plan for a future with climate change. Different questions or decisions need information and data at various levels of detail and complexity. It is important to choose information and data that is fit for purpose. The following products have been produced as part of Victorian Climate Projections 2019:

  • Regional Reports give a selection of the Victorian Climate Projections 2019 findings for each of Victoria’s Regional Partnership regions and Greater Melbourne to help you understand how the climate will change in your region.
  • The Technical Report provides a comprehensive overview of the project’s methodology, provides a scientific analysis of results and detailed information on the statewide level findings.
  • Datasets can be used by technical specialists in impact modelling to understand how particular systems may respond to climate change (e.g. crop or species modelling).
  • Factsheets give overarching information about the project and outline some of its key components. 

Find out more about the Information and data available from the 2019 climate projections (PDF, 158.6 KB). Send any queries to climate.science@delwp.vic.gov.au.

Minor updates to some figure and table captions in the Regional Reports and Technical Report have been made since they were originally published. These changes have been incorporated into the documents currently available online. 

Regional Reports

Regional overviews of the projections can be downloaded below:

Barwon Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.8 MB)

Central Highlands Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.8 MB)

Gippsland Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 2.5 MB)

Goulburn Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.7 MB)

Great South Coast Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 3.1 MB)

Greater Melbourne Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.5 MB)

Loddon Campaspe Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 2.4 MB)

Mallee Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.5 MB)

Ovens Murray Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 1.9 MB)

Wimmera Southern Mallee Climate Projections 2019 (updated 19/02/2020) (PDF, 5.7 MB)

Technical Report

The Technical Report (updated 18/02/2020) (PDF, 37.7 MB) gives a comprehensive overview of the project. It outlines the project’s methodology, provides a scientific analysis of results and detailed information on state-wide level findings.

Individual chapters of the Technical Report are available to download:

Executive Summary (updated 18/02/2020) (PDF, 420.3 KB)

Chapter 1 – Introduction (PDF, 181.5 KB)

Chapter 2 – Methods (PDF, 1.2 MB)

Chapter 3 – Important features of Victoria’s Climate (PDF, 189.7 KB)

Chapter 4 – Model evaluation and confidence (PDF, 17.8 MB)

Chapter 5 – Victoria’s changing climate (updated 18/02/2020) (PDF, 3.7 MB)

Chapter 6 – Victoria under the Paris Agreement targets and beyond 2100 (updated 18/02/2020) (PDF, 305.9 KB)

Chapter 7 – Guidelines for using Victoria’s climate projections (PDF, 333.5 KB)

Appendix, shortened forms, glossary and references (PDF, 13.0 MB)

Datasets

The datasets and more information about using Victorian Climate Projections 2019 data and information is available on the project’s Climate Change in Australia webpage.

The modelling of the high emissions scenario considered in Victorian Climate Projections 2019 was contributed by Wine Australia.

Guidance

CSIRO has developed guidance to help people know what data and information is available and to select relevant data sources for different uses.

It is important to note that the new data from the Victorian Climate Projections 2019 complement rather than replace or supersede existing projections, as they all represent plausible futures. Using a range of projections increases the robustness of climate change planning. Some sets of projections are particularly suited to certain purposes, such as the Victorian Climate Initiative projections for water supply planning.

Victorian Climate Projections 2019 doesn’t include new streamflow change or recharge projections.  The streamflow and recharge projections that are available through the water sector guidelines remain the set of projections that are recommended for use for most water sector applications.

Victorian Government Action on Climate Change

The Victorian Climate Change Act 2017 is the centrepiece of Victoria’s commitment to take real and urgent action on climate change. We are leading our economy to net zero emissions by 2050 and supporting Victoria’s resilience in response to the impacts of climate change. For further information on Victorian Government action on climate change, see:

Building climate resilience in Victorian communities

While it’s important that we act now to reduce the impacts, we also must help out local communities to adapt to changes in their climate.

Developing a robust approach to adaptation is critical to building resilience in our communities and securing a healthy and prosperous future for all Victorians.  It’s all about collaborative action between Government, metro and regional communities to meet the challenges and act on the opportunities of climate change.  

That’s why the government developed its Supporting our Regions to Adapt initiative. The information from Victorian Climate Projections 2019 will be used to inform this regional adaptation planning.

Water Security

Melbourne has experienced below the long-term average inflows into our storages in 18 out of the past 20 years.

From Victorian Climate Projections 2019 and other research, we know over the long-term there will be even less rainfall, less run-off into our rivers and storages and more severe and prolonged droughts.

As at summer 2019, East Gippsland is experiencing its third year of drought conditions and the north of Victoria is experiencing its second year of dry conditions.

The Victorian Government has begun work on a new sustainable water strategy (SWS) for the Central and Gippsland region - to find out more see https://engage.vic.gov.au/ltwra.

See how the Victorian Government is managing Victoria’s water supply by balancing sources from rainfall such as water catchments, rainwater tanks and stormwater harvesting with those independent of rainfall such as desalination water and recycled water - https://www.water.vic.gov.au/vic-water-supply

See how you can do your bit to save more water in the home - https://www.water.vic.gov.au/liveable/using-water-wisely

Scoping Report - June 2018

The Scoping Report (PDF, 2.6 MB) identifies the climate projection needs of the Victorian community and outlines what can be expected from this project. It defines the priority datasets and guidance and information products to be developed as part of the project.

Project background

In June 2018, CSIRO gave a presentation on the background of the project and progress to date.

Page last updated: 26/08/20