Victoria's greenhouse gas emissions and targets

Victoria's new emissions peaked in 2010

The chart shows changes in Victoria’s total net emissions between 2005 and 2019. Victoria’s emissions peaked in 2010 and have been falling since then.

Change in net emissions

Emissions from electricity generation fell by 19.6 Mt CO-₂e between 2005 and 2019; while net absorption by the LULUCF sector increased by 8.8 Mt CO₂-e over this period.

Emissions increased in some sectors, most notably transport emissions increased by 2.5 Mt CO₂-e between 2005 and 2019.

Major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector

Major contributors of greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector are residential (households), followed by commercial services (including retail and wholesale trade, health care, education, accommodation and food services, professional services, etc.) and manufacturing.

Scope 1 in yellow: Emissions arising directly from a household or business/industry. This includes sources such as private vehicle usage; the burning of gas for heating; decomposition of organic waste; and refrigerant gases leaks from air conditioning and refrigeration units.

Scope 2 in teal: Emissions associated with the electricity bought and used by a household or business/industry. Emissions occur at power stations during the generation of the electricity to supply the demands of households, businesses and industries.

Note: The economic sectors in this chart reflect the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC).

Victoria's economy is less emissions intensive

Between 1990 and 2019, real Gross State Product (GSP) increased by 126%, while emissions fell 19%, resulting in a decline in the emissions intensity of the Victorian economy from 0.55 to 0.20 kilograms CO₂-e per dollar of GSP.

Victoria’s per capita emissions have been decreasing since 2010

Between 1990 and 2019, Victoria’s per capita emissions (total emissions divided by the number of people living in Victoria) reduced from 25.8 tonnes (t) CO₂-e to 13.8 tonnes (t) CO₂-e.

Victoria’s per capita emissions are less than the national average

Note: Tasmania’s figure of -3.1 t CO₂-e per capita reflects the fact that net absorption in the LULUCF sector in that state exceeded emissions in other sectors with the result that Tasmania had negative total net emissions in 2019.

In 2019, Victoria’s per capita emissions of 13.8 tonnes (t) CO₂-e in 2019 was less than the national average (20.9 t CO₂-e).

Victoria contributes 17% of Australia’s emissions

In 2019, Victoria was the fourth largest contributor to Australia’s total net emissions (17.3%), behind Queensland (31.1%), New South Wales (25.8%) and Western Australia (17.4%).

Note: Tasmania’s share of -0.3% reflects the fact that net absorption in the LULUCF sector in that state exceeded emissions in other sectors with the result that Tasmania had negative total net emissions in 2019.

During June and July 2019, following the release of independent expert advice on interim targets, the government invited input from Victorians to inform its decision on targets and identify priority actions to reduce emissions.

Please visit Engage Victoria to view the results of that consultation.

As required by Victoria’s Climate Change Act 2017, many factors were considered when setting greenhouse gas emissions targets, including the latest climate science, the opportunities available to Victoria to act, reaching Victoria’s legislated target of net-zero emissions, the advice of the Independent Expert Panel on Interim Emissions Reduction Targets and the economic and social impacts of acting at a given time and in a particular manner.

The document Victoria’s Climate Change Strategy: Economic Analysis (PDF, 2.9 MB) sets out the evidence on the economic impacts of the interim targets for 2025 and 2030 and the supporting policies. It brings together several pieces of analysis that cover different aspects of relevant benefits and costs.

This table outlines the remaining interim target periods to 2050 and when each interim target must be set. After a target has been set, the decision must be tabled in Parliament within 10 sitting days.

Future interim targets

The Panel’s advice on a 2035 emissions reduction target will be informed by the views of the public. Visit Engage Victoria  between 13 April and 22 May 2022 to share your views on a 2035 emissions reduction target for Victoria, and ideas for how we can reach that target.

The Panel’s terms of reference are guided by the Climate Change Act 2017. Their advice must include options for a 2031-2035 interim target, likely pathways to net zero emissions by 2050, and ways to achieve the targets.

Read the full Terms of Reference (PDF, 161.2 KB)

Martijn Wilder AM

Martijn is a founding partner of Pollination, a specialist climatechange advisory and investment firm accelerating the transition to a net zero, climate resilient future. Prior to this, Martijn was the founder and for 20 years the head of the Global Climate Change practice of Baker McKenzie, focused on climate law and finance. Martijn was also formerly Chair of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and a founding Director of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. He also helped establish and later Chair the Federal Government’s Low Carbon Australia finance body.

He currently holds positions as President of WWF-Australia, is a Governing Board Member of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) and Adjunct Professor of International Climate Change Law at Australian National University. Martijn was a Cambridge Commonwealth Trust Scholar and awarded an Australian Honour (AM) for his contribution to climate change law and the environment, and was winner of the 2018 Financial Times Asia Pacific Legal Innovator of the Year.

Emma Herd

Emma is Partner in EY Climate Change and Sustainability Services. She has 20 years’ experience in climate change and sustainability practice, and is a known figure in the Australian and global climate change arena having worked across industry, banking, finance, policy and advocacy.

Emma was formerly Chief Executive Officer of the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) and non-executive director of the Carbon Market Institute. Emma is a member of the Queensland Climate Change Advisory Council, the Green Building Council of Australian GreenStar Advisory Committee, and the Queensland Land Restoration Fund Investment Panel. She is a regular media contributor on climate matters, and a respected voice on climate transition implications for business.

Tennant Reed

Tennant is Principal National Adviser on Public Policy at Ai Group. Tennant has been deeply involved in Australian climate and energy issues since 2008, advising Ai Group’s Leaders’ Group on Energy and Climate Policy, coordinating joint research and advocacy with wider energy stakeholders, facilitating the Australian Climate Roundtable and developing reports on energy prices, carbon border adjustments and business energy use. Tennant has also advised Ai Group on a range of issues related to manufacturing and innovation.

Previously, Tennant was an adviser in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, working on fiscal policy, stimulus and infrastructure.

The Panel’s final report was tabled in Parliament on 6 June 2019. This provides advice on:

• recommended interim targets for 2025 and 2030
• indicative trajectories for Victoria to achieve the long-term target of net-zero emissions by 2050 based on the recommended interim targets
• potential opportunities to reduce emissions across the Victorian economy.

To support its analysis, the panel commissioned further advice. These reports can be accessed below.

• Advice on applying Climate Change Authority emissions targets to Victoria (PDF, 515.4 KB)
• Advice on applying Climate Change Authority emissions targets to Victoria ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 132.6 KB)

• Economic impacts of timing of emissions abatement (PDF, 993.4 KB)
• Economic impacts of timing of emissions abatement ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 521.5 KB)

• Greenhouse gas emissions budgets for Victoria (PDF, 2.5 MB)
• Greenhouse gas emissions budgets for Victoria ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 2.3 MB)

• Deriving a 1.5°C emissions budget for Victoria (PDF, 1.4 MB)
• Deriving a 1.5°C emissions budget for Victoria ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 541.8 KB)

• Health costs of air pollution in Victoria (PDF, 385.5 KB)
• Health costs of air pollution in Victoria ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 157.2 KB)

The panel sought input from the Victorian community to inform the minister's advice on interim targets.

The panel published an issues paper as the basis for an online public consultation process. The consultation was open from 29 March to 1 May 2018.

Issues Paper: Interim Emissions Reduction Targets for Victoria (2021-2030) (PDF, 2.5 MB)

Issues Paper: Interim Emissions Reduction Targets for Victoria (2021-2030) ACCESSIBLE VERSION (DOCX, 1.4 MB)

The public was invited to read this paper, respond to the questions, and provide the panel with any further evidence that could support the development of its advice.

Please visit Engage Victoria to view the results of this consultation.

The Interim Targets Independent Expert Panel terms of reference reflected the statutory requirements laid out in section 12 of the Climate Change Act 2017.

The panel’s advice was required to include interim target options, indicative trajectories to net zero emissions by 2050, and potential emissions reduction opportunities to achieve the targets.

The panel was required to consider economic, environmental and social circumstances and impacts, and the latest climate science, national and global climate action, low-emissions technology and progress in reducing Victoria’s emissions. The panel’s terms of reference were amended in February 2019 to reflect a revised due date for its final advice.

Read the full Terms of Reference (DOCX, 33.2 KB)

The Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change appointed the Independent Expert Panel to advise interim emissions reduction targets in October 2017. The members were:

• The Hon Greg Combet AM (Chair)
• Dr Penny Whetton
• Dr Lorraine Stephenson

The panel members have significant experience in climate change science, low emissions technologies and climate policy. The panel was supported by a Secretariat in the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.

The Hon Greg Combet AM is the Chair of IFM Investors, Chair of Industry Super Australia, and a ME Bank Director. Mr Combet also consults with industry and governments.

Mr Combet held numerous Ministerial and Parliamentary Secretary roles in the Australian Government from 2007 to 2013, including Minister for Industry and Innovation, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and Minister for Defence Personnel, Materiel and Science. Before this, Mr Combet held the ACTU Secretary's role for 8 years and worked as a trade union official and in the mining industry in previous years.

Dr Penny Whetton was an Honorary Research Fellow with the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne and CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere. In Dr Whetton's 25-year career with CSIRO, she took a leading role in Australian science on projecting regional climate change and the use of projections in impact assessment. Through this and her community engagement, she made a unique contribution to a national understanding of and preparedness to respond to climate change.

Dr Whetton was a lead author of the regionalisation and climate scenarios chapters of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the regional projections chapter of the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Australasia chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report.

Dr Lorraine Stephenson has over 30 years of experience in the energy sector and has worked on climate change policy and strategy since 1998. As a consultant, she works with clients to create opportunities to respond to climate change risks, including options to drive investments in low-emission technologies.

Dr Stephenson's other current roles include Non-executive Director of Queensland Electricity Transmission Corporation Limited (Powerlink), Non-executive Director of Good Environmental Choice Australia and member of the NSW Climate Change Council.

She was formerly the Chief Clean Energy Advisor to the Queensland Government, a Partner at Ernst & Young, Non-executive Director of Ergon Energy and Non-executive Director of the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network. Dr Stephenson is a Fellow of the Academy of Technology and Engineering and has formal qualifications in governance, management and science.